Proposal for Single Seat Constituencies, 9 March, 1997
Describes a proposed system of electing Dail deputies, based on the single transferrable vote and single seat constituencies. The system would be similar to what exists at present for by-elections and would require successful candidates getting the support of at least 50% of the electorate.
The List System and Ministerial Selection, 18 April, 1997
Argues that the list system is not necessary to facilitate ministerial selection.
Currency Exchange Rates, 16 July, 1997
Argues for a lowering of the value of the Irish Pound relative to the EU continental currencies, with whom we have, collectively, a larger proportion of our exports than with Britain, and a much more favourable trade balance.
Irish Pound to Euro Conversion, 23 August, 1997
The importance of finding the correct exchange rete for the Irish Pound in the run-up to the single corrency.
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02 March 1997
Dear Sir,
I think that the Seanad needs reforming and in particular there is a need to extend the franchise. I do not think, however, that Seanad elections should be organised on the same basis as Dail elections. I would rather see the Senate elections organised on a vocational basis, which is ironically the way it was set up originally, but it has been hijacked by the politicians and the political parties and turned into a largely redundant institution.
The Seanad should be representative of the various commercial, social and vocational interests in the country. The existing panels should be examined and added to or deleted in accordance with the requirements of modern Ireland. A universal franchise should be then offered to the people, with each voter being asked to register for whichever panel most closely represented his or her vocational or commercial interests. There could for example be an agricultural panel, and industrial panel, an educational panel, a transportation industry panel, a medical panel, a building industry panel and so on. Seanad seats would the allocated in proportion to the number of voters registered for each panel. The constituencies could be grouped together into blocks for the Seanad elections, maybe along the lines of the EC parliament elections. On election day each voter would be given two ballot papers, one for the Dail and one for whichever Seanad panel they had registered for.
If this system were adopted, the Seanad would hopefully become a forum, where representatives of the various industrial, commercial and vocational interests in the country would meet, to resolve their differences and see how best they could work together for the benefit of the country. I would have the same electorate for Seanad elections as for Dail elections but, to allow for maturity and the vital ingredient of experience, I think candidates for election to the Seanad should be over 35 years of age.
Yours sincerely,
Andrew J. Moran.
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9 March, 1997
Dear Sir,
Proportional representation is a very good electoral system and has served us well in this country. However, changing conditions may require a change and, desirable as it may be to achieve high levels of proportionality between Dail representation and the level of support for the various political parties, the use of multiseat constituencies can and does have many disadvantages. As an alternative, I would like to propose a system for the election of 140 TD's, by the single transferable vote, in single seat constituencies. In order to cater for minority interests, I would also propose that a party that exceeds 5% of first preference votes, cast nationally, be entitled to additional TD's to bring its total strength up the five TD's. A party exceeding 7% of the national first preference vote, would be entitled to bring its strength up to six TD's, and a party exceeding 10% of national first preferences would be entitled to bring its strength up to seven TD's.
The additional TD's, within a party, would be selected with reference to the percentages of first preference votes cast for them within their constituencies. In the unlikely event of two candidates being on the same percentage of first preference votes and only one of them to be selected, the matter could be decided with reference to the percentages of second preference votes, and so on down through the preferences until the matter be decided. Such a system would be both democratic and effective, unlike the list system, where a proportion of the candidates is chosen from lists provided by the political parties, based on the percentages of first preference votes achieved nationally by the parties. The list system, to my mind, would give inordinate political power to those in control of political parties and TD's, selected by such methods, would be likely to be perceived as having a lesser democratic mandate, than those directly elected.
We need to go for single seat constituencies for two main reasons: to counter an increasing tendency for political instability and to make our political system more effective and more responsive to the needs of the country. Luckily we have so far escaped the high levels of political instability, which have been the Italian experience. This may not continue to be the case, and we could well be well entering a period of fragmentation of political representation, leading to instability and the balance of power being held by smaller parties. Thus, in an effort to achieve proportional representation, we may paradoxically bring about disproportionate influence for smaller parties and attendant instability. We have already seen an extreme example of this in the Gregory deal, where Mr Haughey got into power in 1987 on the basis of a deal with Tony Gregory. With the deep divisions engendered by the Civil War now thankfully on the wane, old political allegiances are also changing and the potential for political instability is likely to increase. We could soon be into a situation where governments change once or twice a year, like the Italians have had to contend with. In the present Dail the government changed without a general election, for the first time in the history of the state. While the present government has worked out fairly well, it is a most unlikely coalition. Recent events, like the Lowry scandal, the tendency of the government to take the easy route in economic and fiscal matters and rumours of disagreement in cabinet, are indications that all is not well. One wonders whether such a coalition would last a full Dail term. But for the way it came into existence, it may not have lasted as long as it has.
Quite apart from predicted instability, which may or may not occur, the system of multiseat constituencies is, to my mind, a major contributor to the ineffectiveness of the political system in this country. The system gives rise to competition between members of the same party, for votes in Dail elections, and this leads to undue emphasis on local issues, to the detriment of national government. It leads to election by personality rather than policy. It leads to TD's trying to fill the dual role of TD and local councillor, to the detriment of both roles. It can lead to the election of an inferior quality TD, on the strength of the surplus of a popular member of the same party. If there were only one TD returned form each Dail constituency, each party would put forward only one candidate - it's best candidate. While personality would still be a factor in getting elected, single seat constituencies should result in a greater emphasis on differences in policy, between the different parties, and hopefully, in a greater emphasis on national issues, like the control and regulation of the economy, and the promotion of Irish interests on the international scene. Local issues should be left to a reformed system of local government.
It will no doubt be argued that single seat constituencies, with the retention of the single transferable vote, will result in an unacceptable reduction in proportionality of representation and in the elimination of smaller parties. I believe such fears are exaggerated: there have been instances of candidates from small parties getting elected in by-elections - Eric Byrne of Democratic Left is a case in point. It would be undoubtedly more difficult for very small parties and independents in a general election, but the corrective steps I have proposed would hopefully ease the situation for them.
Yours sincerely,
Andrew J. Moran.
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18 April, 1997
Dear Sir,
Reading Dr. Edward Walsh's article on the electoral system in today's Independent, I was struck by his emphasis on the list system as a means of returning deputies to Dail Eireann. Why do government members need to be put high up on the list to protect them from being thrown out by the electorate and, if the list system is so good, why not use it to select all the Dail Deputies? The answer would probably be that local and regional interests need to be represented in the national parliament. If that be the answer, who or what would the deputies selected from the list represent: vested interests of various types; those in control of the political parties?
It should be remembered that the Dail is primarily a representative chamber whose members are selected to represent the people at the centre of power. If, according to Dr. Walsh, it is deficient in providing suitable people for the role of government minister, then it is always possible to widen the basis of selection. It is already possible to select government ministers from the Senate and, given the Taoiseach's right to select 11 senators, this in theory would allow a Taoiseach to select any suitable person as a minister. If further flexibility were needed, the power could be given to a Taoiseach to select a certain number of government ministers, without making them Senators but with the approval of the Dail. This would allow for the replacement of ministers in the middle of a Dail term. Of course, since the Taoiseach depends on the Dail for selection, there would still be a tendency, as at present, to select the government exclusively from Dail deputies. I can only remember one instance (when Dr. Fitzgerald was Taoiseach) that a Senator was selected a minister.
It could be argued that the executive be completely separated from the legislature, as they do in the USA, where the head of government is elected directly by the people and then selects the government with the approval of Congress. This would allow a much greater freedom for the selection of the best people to serve as government ministers, though in practice, as in the US, this would be constrained to some extent by politics.
Yours sincerely,
Andrew J. Moran.
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16 July, 1997
Dear Sir,
While understanding the concerns of S. Delaney, in the letters page of today's Irish Independent (16/7/97), that exporters are benefiting from the current relatively low value of the punt against Sterling, I would like to point out that only 24.8% of our exports in 1996 went to Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The other country against which our currency has fallen, the United States, only took 9.4% of our exports. Against both of these countries we had a small negative trade balance in 1996. On the other hand our currency has undergone a massive appreciation against the other EU countries, who took 43.8% of our exports in 1996. Also against these countries we enjoy a massive positive trade balance.
Surely, with such a large proportion of our exports going to the Continent, we should be more concerned with the value of our currency relative to the continental currencies. There should be a gradual reduction of our interest rates - two to three half point reductions per year - towards German levels as 1999 and the Single Currency approach. German rates may of course rise to meet us in the intervening period and the British pound may drop back from its current flight of fancy. I cannot believe that British manufacturers and exporters are not hurting with the present value of Sterling. Even if this is not the case and they can trade successfully on the Continent, despite the current value of Sterling, then they can drop their prices to facilitate a dropping Irish currency as well and there need be no inflation resulting from British imports. If they do not do this then they will be in danger of being displaced on the Irish market by exporters from the Continent or from other countries in the Global Marketplace.
| Country | Exports | Imports | Trade Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| IR£m | IR£m | IR£m | |
| UK | 7,459 | 7,767 | -308 |
| Other EU countries | 13,182 | 4,916 | 8,266 |
| USA | 2,819 | 3,458 | -639 |
| Rest of World | 6,625 | 6,205 | 420 |
Yours Sincerely,
Andrew J. Moran.
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23 August, 1997
Published, Irish Independent.
Dear Sir,
The exchange rate at which the final conversion will be made between the Irish pound and the euro will be most important. On it will depend the setting of Irish wage levels and the cost of Irish produced raw materials in euros, which will be our currency from then on.
While commodity prices have a tendency to fluctuate up and down, wage rates, once set, do not tend to drop. If they are set much too high they can put a damper on the development of the economy, which may result in a loss of jobs. On the other hand, if rates are set too low it can encourage profit taking and inefficiency, which is ultimately no good for business or for workers. Getting the correct conversion rate will benefit all, including the economy generally. It is particularly important at a time of low inflation to get the rate right, as the adjusting affect of inflation will not be available and any misalignment of wage rates with those of our EU partners will be likely to persist for longer.
We have two examples of currencies being set too high in the recent past: the rate at which the British currency entered the tightly controlled ERM and the one-to-one conversion of the savings of East Germans into West German marks, when Germany was united. The first led to the disastrous devaluation of the British Currency, when Britain dropped out of the ERM, and Germany is still working through the consequences of the latter. When the single currency comes into existence, corrective measures such as the setting of exchange rates and interest rates will be no longer available to the individual countries, that have joined the euro currency. Separate currencies will have ceased to exist and interest rates will be set centrally for the euro block.
Much has been made of the problem of trying to align our currency with the general run of European currencies, which are loosely aligned with the German mark, and a maverick British currency. In the circumstances, I would be inclined to focus more on the mark, while not losing sight completely of the British currency. On balance a rate of about 2.50 marks to the Irish pound and somewhere between 0.85 and 0.95 Sterling would seem about right. There should be no formal revaluation of the Irish currency, within the ERM, prior to the final alignment with the euro. Irish interest rates should be progressively lowered to bring them down towards German levels and to bring the value of the Irish currency closer to the desired value of 2.50 marks.
Yours sincerely,
Andrew J. Moran.
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