FYI: This just posted from Viz on The Hot Sheets Solar Board.
I think he is the author of the Enigma info.
http://www.thehotsheets.com
Date: March 01, 2003 at 09:47:56
From: Viz, [cpe000502936492-cm3236343237303838.cpe.net.cable.rogers.com]
Subject:
For the Record
With all due respect to Jim McCanney, Mitch
Battros, Tom Van Flandern, NASA and others, I´d
like to disagree (at least in part) with all of them.
1) V1´s tail did not get "cut off" by the sun´s
object-directed CME. As it swung through
perihelion, the relative angle from which we viewed
the comet´s tail also changed, so that it was
pointing almost directly away from us at the time
when Jim (and others) assumed it to be lost. This
is simple foreshortening.
2) As explained previously with regard to the CME
being on the opposite side of the sun in the path
projection image: This was not a "flipped" image,
but merely reflects the feisty attitude of the sun one
year earlier, when a massive CME emerged at the
lower-left limb of the sun on Feb. 18, 2002. The
path projection line was superimposed over last
year´s image so that the starfield would be the
same as when V1 passed perihelion this year.
3) The comet was not sized-up by graduate
students at NASA in order to make it more visible.
Several of the images WERE released within 25
minutes of capture time and there wouldn´t have
been time to edit the images -- especially if these
"grad students" were marooned in various DC
snowbanks at the time.
4) If, as TVF indicates, the comet had a nuclear
diameter of between 0.5 to 0.75 km, it never would
have survived its trip to the sun, given its effective
rate of particle discharge. To accomplish this, it
would have to be roughly as dense as a neutron star.
5) NASA´s official estimate of nuclear diameter is
closer to the truth than that proposed by TVF. But at
32 mi, about 80% the diameter of Hale-Bopp, V1
would still be under-estimated. For that matter, so
was Hale-Bopp. My own estimate places V1 at
approximately 480 miles, but I might acquiesce to
a final figure one quarter of that size.
6) Comet "Bradfield" (C/1976 D1), one of many
spotted by the same astronomer, laid a trail as all
active comets do, and we are scheduled to run
through it about once every sixty years, when the
pull of Saturn and Jupiter are sufficient. The
shower, not expected to be grand, will emanate
from the Southern constellation, Toucan; one of
two comet-related meteor showers to do so.
7) The Beta Toucanids will be moderate to light,
but there may be other coincidental events. Most
likely, though, this announcement (which received
more mainstream press than V1 itself!) is geared
to acclimate us to the notion of unexpected meteor
showers. And the lack of remarkable activity this
weekend will reinforce the assumption that meteor
showers are usually rather unspectacular.
8) Scopes, binoculars and eyes will be trained on
either Toucan or the outgoing V1. And speaking of
the outgoing V1... It is a little off-track, but we are in
absolutely zero danger of having it run into us.
9) Due to the loss of numerous southern
observatories for various reasons, observational
resources are stretched extremely thin. This will
make it somewhat unlikely that other objects,
coming from unexpected points of origin will be
detected until they have already passed.
10) As previously related in here and in the Enigma
articles, we should be devoting some time to the
area ~2° East and South of Mars. This proposed
object originated from the same E-W area of the
cosmos as V1. They were both directly lined up
with the Earth and Sun at ~May 26, 2002.
11) Another companion object took up temporary
residence around the Earth in mid-September,
2002, and we now have several unfamiliar satellites.
12) Enigma "overshot" the sun in a non-traditional
perihelion and is now about nine days away from
passing through our area of the solar system. Its
composition is different from V1, but it is roughly
the same physical size. It "outweighs" V1 by
several orders of magnitude and shows little in the
way of a visible signature. IR and radioscopes offer
the best chance for a sighting.
13) Enigma entered our system first, followed by
the new earth satellite I like to call the Red Comet
(albeit a small one), and only several months later
did V1 trail in from the same direction. V1 did the
typical comet "turnaround" and headed back out to
deeper space for the next 37,000 years, but not
before leaving us something of a "gift".
14) This is not a very good gift; certainly not what
you´d ask for on your birthday, but it does comprise
a birthday, of sorts. The debris trail blowing away
from V1, just after perihelion, cast a broad swath of
particles across our ecliptic. And we will cross that
field at some time between April 21st and May
25th, 2003. Most of this material is nothing more
than dust, but a significant percentage of the
matter is pea-sized; more than adequate for taking
out the network of satellites poised above our
heads. There will be other, larger, chunks as well.
The light show should be phenomenal.
15) The "show" should happen in several waves,
over a period of several weeks. The most likely line
for sky effects (plus some ground strikes) runs
from the Philippines to Mexico, just south of the
Tropic of Cancer. However, there is a second event
line, thanks to Sir Isaac, upon which larger objects
may have a tendency to fall. That would
encompass the northern hemisphere from 30°N to
60°N. Events in this area are much less likely than
those just below Cancer, but they are potentially
more dangerous.
16) Back to March 10-11. Probability of a worldwide
"shiver" and highly unpredictable weather as a
mostly invisible high-mass body passes within
300,000 km of our South pole (SSW).
Points 1-9, you can take to the bank. Points 10-16
are my own speculation, but are based upon more
than a simple gut feeling.
I´m not certain that I should get into Point 17, as
that may be more suitable for the War board.
Man, this took a long time to write and I´m very tired
now, so I´m going back to bed. Thanks for your kind
wishes. I´m doing just fine.
Remember, canned and dry food and bottled water
can always be eaten later if nothing happens -- but
what are the chances of nothing happening?
**************
Blessings,
YCS
http://www.thehotsheets.com/solarsystem/messages/3305.shtml
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