By Fintan Dunne,
Editor, GuluFuture.com
12th August 2002

El Nino is back.

World weather is going crazy again. But it has little to do with global warming caused by greenhouse gasses and plenty to do with variations in solar activity.

Indeed the entire concept of rising sea levels caused by melting ice caps --may be only a storm of hype.

Back in 1841, famous Antarctic explorer Captain Sir James Clark Ross made his mark on a little island near Port Arthur, Tasmania. That is, he literally marked the mean level of the tides on a sandstone cliff face. Incredibly, that the mark is one inch above the current mean tide level today.

Greenhouse effect dissenter and former ship's officer in the British Merchant Navy, John Daly trumpets the mark to rubbish claims of melting polar ice caps.

"When we look at the Ross-Lempriere 1841 bench mark, one thing becomes crystal clear: There has been no sea level rise this century - none at all."

Media reports abound of continued global warming. "World Heads for Warmest Year Yet" enthused a recent Reuters report. But many of the temperature readings are inaccurate, or compromised by their location near urban centers, or based on downright misleading reports. The year 1998 was warm -but temperatures have actually gone down since then.

Record low temperatures hit the US Midwest and eastern states in May 2002, while southeastern Australia had the coolest summer in decades. The famous Northwest Passage has not opened this year and there is more sea ice than ever around the Antarctic, trapping several ships. Recently, an icebreaker became trapped in the Antarctic ice for months --hardly evidence of global warming.


All the hype may have more to do with protecting the interests of the global warming research industry and the political skins of the environmental movement.

The much publicized global surface temperature measurements are completely at variance with satellite measurements of the lower troposphere. Furthermore, records of the continental US surface temperature show the 1930's --not the '90's-- were the hottest years this century.

So, if greenhouse gasses are not driving temperatures to record levels after all, what is behind the temperature variations and the El Nino/La Nina effect?

To answer that, we must turn to a real climate forecaster. The establishment pundits only "predicted" the current El Niņo cycle when it was already underway. Dr. Theodor Landscheidt, using an analysis of solar eruptions and solar motions, forecast a late 2002 El Niņo peak, describing the process in detail in January 1999.

He used sophisticated mathematical analysis to forecast the El Niņo reappearance three years ahead --based on cycles of solar activity. This approach runs counter to the official bias in favor of greenhouse gasses as the major causative factor.


The established judgments are based on the fact that the solar radiation changes only by a fraction of a percent during the course of the 11-year sunspot cycle.

But Landscheidt says that energetic flares, coronal mass ejections, eruptive prominences and coronal holes have significant effects on the solar wind.

"The total magnetic flux leaving the Sun, dragged out by the solar wind, has risen by a factor of 2.3 since 1901," says Landscheidt. "While concomitantly global temperature increased by about 0.6°C."

"The energy in the solar flux is transferred to the near-Earth environment by magnetic reconnection and directly into the atmosphere by charged particles."

Fangqun Yu, of the Atmospheric Sciences Research Center at the State University of New York-Albany, has shown that cosmic rays may have effects on the cloudiness of the lower atmosphere. Cosmic rays are high speed particles of either galactic or solar origin. The amount of cosmic rays falling on the Earth varies depending on the "weather" conditions in space and variations in solar activity.

Yu's research indicated that the cosmic rays stimulate the production of particles in the lower atmosphere which increase cloud density. Satellite data shows a correlation between cosmic ray intensity and the fraction of the Earth covered by low clouds. During the 20th century, periods when the Earth has warmed have corresponded with decreases in cosmic ray intensity.

Height dependent differences can cause an increase of particles in the lower troposphere and a decrease in the upper atmosphere. High clouds generally reflect sunlight while lower clouds tend to retain surface energy.

"A systematic change in global cloud cover will change the atmospheric heating profile," according to Yu.


Cosmic ray induced cloud level changes could be the key mechanism connecting solar and climate variability. That assessment indicates that the current El Niņo effect is unlikely to approach the severity of the preceding cycles.

If that view is to prevail, it will entail the sudden ending of many careers in a climate research field more akin to a business than a science. So, next time you hear dire pronouncements about climate change, you can relax.

You will easily survive the oncoming storm of hype.

It's just business as usual.


 John Daly's Global Warming Views
 Cosmic Rays Solve Global Warming
 El Niņo Forecast Revisited
 Solar Activity Controls El Niņo and La Niņa

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