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Speaking at a protest against the US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol outside the US embassy in Dublin, this afternoon, Pat Finnegan, co-ordinator of GRIAN (1) said today that the US position on climate totally contradicts the principles that led to American Independence---and thus to today’s celebrations in the US.

Text of speech follows:

“The right to independence and self-determination is a fundamental one, applicable to both individual human beings as much as to Nation States, as international law recognises.  However, along with rights come responsibilities, as international law also recognises.”

“The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) made at the Earth Summit in Rio in 1992 entered into force in March 1994, and is thus binding on all 175 Parties to it, including the USA.”

“UNFCCC is based on a number of core principles explicitly written into its text, and four of these are particularly relevant today."

"The Convention explicitly recognises:  Firstly that climate change poses a severe threat to the world, particularly with regard to food security.  Secondly, that it has been largely caused by fossil-fuel emissions arising from the developed countries of the world.  Thirdly, that the less-developed countries of the world are disproportionately exposed to threats caused by climate change.  Fourthly, that the developed countries must take the lead in combating it.”

“The new US administration seems determined to ignore these legally-binding commitments which it has signed, ratified, and agreed to operate since 1994.”

“The fact that the developed countries of the world---regrettably including Ireland---neglected to fulfil their 1992 commitments led to the need to make the Kyoto Protocol to the Convention in 1997.  The Protocol means stronger emission cuts than the Convention, but it offers a longer timescale within which to achieve them.”

“It does not supersede any principles embedded in the Convention, least of all those just mentioned.  Rather it is designed to reinforce them.”

“American Independence Day celebrates the success of the American Revolution, which was predicated on the principles of freedom, equality and mutual aid.  These are the three pillars of the Enlightenment, which European settlers imported to America.  Each pillar is equally important.  They were never envisaged as an á la carte menu from which stronger members of society can feel free to pick and choose at their leisure.”

“There is a direct line between these principles and the fact that the US is able to celebrate American Independence Day today.  There is an equally direct line between these principles and the principles of the Climate Convention.  Reneging on the Protocol means reneging on the Convention.  Reneging on the Convention means reneging on the spirit of the American Revolution, and therefore on everything which the USA most claims for itself.”

“Liberty may stand for independence, but it does not extend to the freedom of the strong to ignore the principles of equality, mutual aid and respect for others.”

“Mr. Bush was elected by the slenderest of democratic mandates.  Over 70% of US citizens disapprove of his administration’s stance on Kyoto.  The overwhelming majority of State Parties to both the Convention and the Protocol want to have an international process in place to do something about climate change.  Almost all of them want to start now.  Many are worried that we may have already left it too late.”

“On this July 4th, the United States of America celebrates its freedom from what---at the time---it regarded as an overbearing, patronising and oppressive foreign power.  Today is the 225th American Independence Day, but in terms of international citizenship in the greenhouse, the White House would appear to be taking the iodea of independence a step too far.”
 

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EDITORS AND NEWSDESKS MIGHT CARE TO NOTE that “informal” negotiations taking place in Scheveningen (The Hague) this week may well prove decisive for the future of the climate negotiations in general, and the future of the Kyoto Protocol in particular.

Conference President Jan Pronk has called high-level representatives of the Parties to the Protocol to a round of “informal” discussions this week to discuss the “consolidated” version of his compromise paper, with a view to having at least some formal proposals on the table when COP 6 officially resumes next month in Bonn.

Climate insiders will be aware that “informal discussions” is conference-speak for hard bargaining and trade-offs on the precise content of the text in square brackets, which will eventually be up for decision in Bonn.

Outcomes this week will therefore provide a clear indication of the likely prospects for the Kyoto Protocol when the Sixth Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 6) resumes next month.

In particular the papers within Pronk’s “consolidated text” (1) now look far more like the sort of text that eventually goes on to become a final document.  This paper is a progression of the “President’s Note” COP President Pronk sent around Parties earlier this year, which itself was an expanded version of the informal “Note” that was left on the table when COP 6 broke up in disarray last November.

At each stage the text has become steadily more specific, complex and explicitly related to the “Buenos Aires Plan of Action” which is supposed to allow the Kyoto Protocol to both operate and to be ratified.

The sticking points remain the ones that led to the break-up last year,--notably the amount of “carbon credits” Parties can claim through the use of forestry and land-use activities as “sinks”, or emission offsets.

This week should provide a good indication as to whether sufficient Parties can be relied upon for the Protocol to enter into force (2), even if the USA decides to stay out.  This is technically feasible if both Russia and Japan can be prevailed upon to ratify.  Both of these Parties have substantial interest in the sinks issue.  Russia because of its huge land and forest area and Japan because it too is largely forested, but has no more land available for enhanced forestry activities.

The EU (despite occasional wobbles) seems to be unanimous in its determination to go ahead with Kyoto, and has spent much time over the last few months building bridges with Japan on this issue.  Sources close to the process say that Japan in any case feels honour bound to ratify, since the Kyoto Protocol was done in Japan.  Pronk’s new text also allows special recognition of Japan’s unique situation as a highly developed country with better-than-average levels of energy efficiency and very little land left.

The Russian situation (and possibly their commitment to Kyoto) is, as ever, somewhat volatile.  A good deal from their perspective might involve some sort of cash, loans, or favourable trade terms for their vast forested areas and/or “hot air”,---unused carbon credits available to them under Kyoto rules which their recent economic difficulties prevent them claiming.

In either case, it is rapidly approaching “put up or shut up” time for the US.  Insiders say George Bush’s “alternate plan” is still months away, and they have been shocked by world and domestic fury over the issue.  A poll this week has Bush losing 7 points at home in the last month, and a report commissioned by the incoming administration essentially backed the UN view that action must not be delayed

All should become much clearer at 18h00 on this Thursday 28 June, when Conference President Pronk and Executive Secretary Michael Cutajar hold their press conference in Scheveningen. (3)
 

FOR FURTHER DETAILS, ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY PLEASE CONTACT:

PAT FINNEGAN

On

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(1) The consolidated text is available on the conference website at: http://www.unfccc.de/wnew/index.html

(2)  The Protocol has a double ratification clause requiring signature by 55 State Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), as well as sufficient Parties to account for 55% of Annex 1 (Developed countries)1990 emissions.  Since the US accounts for 36% of these, it holds a substantial, but not complete, veto over the process.

(3) Further details available at:  http://www.unfccc.de/press/releases/index.html
 
 

BUSH TO BRING “NOTHING BUT A BOTTLE OF SMOKE” TO GOTHENBERG SAYS IRISH CLIMATE GROUP
 

US President George Bush Jnr. will be bringing “nothing but a bottle of smoke” to his meeting with EU leaders tomorrow according to Irish climate group GRIAN.  (1)

“George Bush finds himself in an awkward position following his ill-considered rejection of the Kyoto Protocol last March” said GRIAN’s co-ordinator Pat Finnegan in Dublin this afternoon.

“Bush finds himself out of touch with the majority of world opinion on the need to do something about climate change” Mr. Finnegan continued,  “He seems to have been speaking more from his fossil-fuelled background than with an eye to the future when he shot Kyoto down.”

“Sometimes, shooting from the hip means hitting yourself in the foot, and this seems to be a case in point” said Mr. Finnegan.

A report commissioned by the Bush team from the prestigious US National Academy of Science (2) said this week that something must be done, or else the US, along with everybody else, faces economic damages of a far greater order than those Bush fears Kyoto will cost the US economy.

“Bush will, unfortunately, bring nothing more to Gothenberg this week than a bottle of smoke to hide his embarrassment” Mr.Finnegan said.

Although Mr. Bush covered his rejection of Kyoto with a promise to come up with something better, sources close to the climate negotiations say any new US proposals are probably months away.

“The rest of the world, particularly the EU and the developing countries want substantial action now, not vague promises of something similar sometime in the future" said Mr.Finnegan.

He continued:  “The swing vote on Kyoto lies largely with Japan, hitherto an ally of the US in blocking action, but the Japanese are now co-operating closely with the EU to try to find a mechanism that will allow Kyoto become operational.  Japan, no more than the EU, the developing countries or, according to recent polls, the majority of the US electorate want the US to continue fiddling while the house burns down.”

Climate negotiations resume in the Hague on June 25th, prior to COP 6 (the climate conference) resuming in Bonn at the end of July.

“Bush is unlikely to have anything other than the current US isolationism to put on the table before then” said Mr Finnegan, “The world, as much as the most basic provisions of international law and the future health of the planet, have a right to expect more than that.”
 
 

(1)  GRIAN is a new, independent, not-for profit organisation based in Ireland, established specifically to tackle the problems of climate change. Further details can be found on our website: www.grian.net

(2)  http://www.iht.com/articles/22659.htm
 
 

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