THE bookmakers are offering 20-1 against Arsenal and Manchester United producing the first all-English final in the history of the European Cup. As usual, they have it about right.
The smarter pesetas may still be on Real Madrid, who hit Sturm Graz for six in midweek, and Barcelona, despite their defeat in Munich, but for punters who eschew favourites in search of a more sporting gamble, Arsenal and United must represent an enticing double. After all, such a conjunction would be entirely typical of football's caprices. Wait 14 years for a finalist, then two come along together.
English prospects are still set fair after matchday three. Arsenal may be a tad less optimistic after being held 1-1 at home by Dynamo Kiev, especially now that they have to play two problematic away matches without their non-flying Dutchman, Dennis Bergkamp. But the Premiership champions still hold a three-point advantage over the pride of the Ukraine, who are their strongest rivals in Group E, and Tony Adams and company are nothing if not resilient.
The real fillip came in Group D, where United scaled the commanding heights by putting six past a Brondby team who had been good enough to beat Bayern Munich 2-1. No club had managed to score six goals away in the Champions League before [nobody has ever scored seven anywhere] and the coruscating quality of United's performance merited the record.
Full of admiration, the Danes promptly acclaimed Alex Ferguson's vibrant young team as potential champions. "My money is on United to win the cup," said John Jensen who, as Arsenal fans will recall, knows a thing or two about filthy lucre.
Jensen, 33 and back with Brondby as captain, was suspended on Wednesday, and could only look on and marvel with the rest of us at the way United made light of dreadful conditions (high winds, driving rain and a heavy pitch) to assemble a pacy, penetrative passing game that tore the Danes to shreds. This, without their distributive diamond, David Beckham, who, like Jensen, was suspended.
Beckham was not the only notable absentee. Nicky Butt was also banned and Ronnie Johnsen, the preferred partner for Jaap Stam in central defence, was injured, while Denis Irwin and Teddy Sheringham were likewise unavailable. In the circumstances, it was a truly exceptional display. "That's the difference this year from last," Ryan Giggs said. "Now, we can get by when good players are out because the players the manager bought in the summer have given us much more strength in depth."
There were man of the match candidates everywhere, from Roy Keane and Paul Scholes, who were colossal in midfield, to Dwight Yorke and Andy Cole, who were pace and deadly purpose made flesh up front. "They are so incredibly fast," marvelled the Brondby coach, Ebbe Skovdahl. But Jensen, after acknowledging the workaholic efforts of his kindred spirit, Keane, had eyes only for one man. Giggs had been the best player on the pitch, he said. By a mile.
Apart from scoring the first two goals, which set the pattern, Giggs had passed the ball with intelligent and, occasionally, perceptive economy, and had covered every sodden, sapping inch of turf, infiltrating one penalty area, defending the other. Europe seems to bring the genie out of the bottle (remember that goal against Juventus last season?), and on nights like Wednesday, when the pulse quickens every time he gets possession, those comparisons with the peerless George Best do not seem quite so fanciful, after all.
"I think he must be the best player in England," Jensen said. "Any team in the world would love to have him." Certainly the thought occurred in the Parken stadium that Glenn Hoddle could do with Giggs. McManaman with head-up vision and end product. What a pity it is going to be if the Welshman's nationality, like Ireland's Best before him, denies him the place he deserves on the world stage.
On a different plane, but encouraging nonetheless, there was a promising European debut for 19-year-old Wes Brown, at right-back. Brown, the latest product of United's exemplary youth system, had the benefit of just two starts in the first team and yet, appropriately enough on a drenching night, took his first quack at the Champions League like Donald to water. An England international at the European Under-18 championships last summer, this quick, strong defender has the look of another senior cap in the making.
The halfway point at the group stage is a good time to take stock, and if Arsenal are going to have problems, away to Kiev and Panathinaikos without the talismanic Bergkamp, United at least can turn for home bolstered not only by their own resurgent form but also by Bayern's 1-0 victory over Barcelona, which prevented the Catalans from seizing control of the section. A draw between the same two teams when they meet again in the Nou Camp on November 4 would enable United to open up a three-point lead at the top by beating Brondby at home.
The "big one", as far as United are concerned, is Barca away on November 25. The last time they played there, four years ago, they got a 4-0 spanking which effectively put them out, and although they have undoubtedly improved in the intrerim, the 3-3 draw between the two sides at Old Trafford last month did not augur well.
"If Barcelona beat us again, we'll go out, I think," Ferguson said. "But Bayern's result against them has opened up the situation. Wednesday was a great night for us, because we got both the results we wanted. I fancied Bayern, actually. Mind you, I never thought we'd get a score like that. Quite fantastic."
In his pre-match team talk, the United manager had stressed the need for "aggressive attacking" and the assertive, high-energy way his team set about their work had Brondby on the back foot and beaten before the game was half an hour old. It was not only his players who were learning and improving with European experience. For the second time in successive matches, Ferguson felt he had won the tactical battle. From the coaching viewpoint, he said, the 2-2 draw in Munich had given him even more satisfaction. "I think that was our best performance of the three. We not only attacked them, we showed discipline and purpose in the way we did it. Tactically, we were very good."
After losing 3-0 at Arsenal on September 20, United hit back hard, scoring 18 goals in their next five games. Highbury, Ferguson said, had been the wake-up call they needed: "Sometimes you need a bit of a shock to get you going. Now we've got the show on the road." For all that, Brondby at Old Trafford would not be the walkover people might now expect, he warned. They had put Liverpool out of the Uefa Cup by winning 1-0 at Anfield two seasons ago, "and if you look at their record, their best results in Europe have been away".
Ferguson is right to guard against complacency, of course, but despite their last-gasp win at home to Bayern, the Danish champions are not the force they were. On Wednesday, a nervy, disorganised defence was symptomatic of a decline which had left them five points off the pace in their domestic league, with five defeats in their first 11 games.
More interesting than his team's contribution last Wednesday was their coach's assessment of a glamorous, competitive group which was, Ferguson enthused, "what European football is all about". Skovdahl said: "Our three opponents play three different styles. In a way, they are prime exponents of the way football is played in the three countries they represent. Barcelona play a Latin-south European style based on offensive but disciplined football, using a team in which each and every player is technically equipped to dribble past opponents."
Bayern Munich relied on a more structured game. "It is easier to see what they want to do, but stopping them doing it is another matter because they have good, experienced players who are used to doing it very well." United were less predictable and more imposing, physically. "They play at a high, unremitting pace from the first minute, and have good, creative players like Beckham and Giggs. The only thing that can be taken for granted is that they will always go for a win. That's their style."
They will be at home to Brondby in 10 days' time, that's for sure. Having beaten them 6-0 in Copenhagen in pre-season and now 6-2, they are looking for game, set and match in straight sets. But whether United will decide that attack is indeed the best form of defence in the Nou Camp remains to be seen. It may have to be Keane and Butt - good old belt and braces - there.
