Juventus cast shadow of doubt over United
 

The Sunday Times - 13th December 1998

DELIVERED with a rueful shake of that wise old head, it was the most telling remark of the night. "Juventus got through, eh?" Alex Ferguson mused. "Amazing." The implicit admission could not have been clearer: Manchester United needed the Old Lady out of the European Cup.

Amid the backslapping celebrations that attended United's progress into the last eight, their manager was already looking ahead to Wednesday's quarter-final draw, and he could have done without Juve's last-gasp jump from third place to the top of Group B with their first, and only, win in six qualifying ties.

The most famous, and successful, Italian team of them all may be having a disappointing season in Serie A, but they have the players, the experience and the managerial know-how to rise to the big occasion, and Ferguson will be keen to avoid them when the lots are cast in Geneva's Intercontinental hotel.

You would hardly have guessed it from the "Here we go" blather that surrounded him all week, but he will want to avoid others, too.

Typically, for British attitudes to such things are as black and white as Juve's stripes, apprehension instantly gave way to jingoistic partiality last Wednesday when, having qualified by the tradesmen's entrance as one of the two best runners-up, United were immediately installed as favourites to win the competition that has been their magnificent obsession.

It would be easy to blame one bookmaker for quoting a miserly 3-1 against it, but as a betting man explained to me on the night, they were merely reacting to the blind faith of a one-eyed clientele, virtually none of whom were interested in backing a foreign team. The odds reflect not the relative merits of the eight runners, but the prospect of the bookies catching a cold if United were to win.

In reality, a case can be made for England's standard bearers ranking no better than fourth or fifth in this distinguished company. On form and potential, it would be no surprise if Dynamo Kiev reached the final, nor if their opponents were to be Internazionale. Juventus, too, are well worthy of the respect Ferguson has for them, and how can Bayern Munich be discounted after winning United's group?

Well though they played in rattling home an unprecedented 20 goals in six matches, it should not be forgotten that Ferguson's buccaneers beat only feeble Brondby.

Bayern defeated Barcelona at home and away. And while they scored plenty, United also leaked too many for comfort at the other end - 11 in six games amounting to easily the worst defensive record of all the Champions League quarter-finalists.

The inability to keep a clean sheet, which is rooted in the decline of their goalkeeper, Peter Schmeichel, is an obvious Achilles' heel. Schmeichel is not exclusively to blame, of course.

The back four in front of him is not a settled unit, is fallible in the air - particularly at set pieces - and does not inspire confidence. But uncertainty in a goalkeeper spreads through a team like an intestinal contagion, and the Dane's increasing reluctance to leave his line to deal with crosses, and uncertain handling, is of mounting Mancunian concern.

At this rarefied level, United could also do with a dominant midfield meister of the calibre of Bayern's Steffan Effenberg, whose all-round excellence last Wednesday came as a reminder of the towering talent that Germany have missed since he declared himself unavailable for international selection after the two-fingered salute with which he departed the 1994 World Cup.

Munich's finest possess a reliable goalkeeper in Oliver Kahn, defenders Ferguson would give his right hand for (if Brian Kidd hadn't already gone) in Markus Babbel and Thomas Strunz, and an embarrassment of riches in midfield, which put the erstwhile wunderkind of German football, Mario Basler, on the bench on Wednesday.

Ottmar Hitzfeld, the doyen of German coaches, who won the European Cup with Borussia Dortmund in 1997, before decamping to Munich, rates this Bayern team much stronger, and the evidence suggests he is right.

Mind you, Hitzfeld added quickly, United, too, are better than they were when Dortmund put them out at the semi-final stage two years ago. "The young players have gained experience, and they have added [Jaap] Stam and [Dwight] Yorke."

Real Madrid, the holders, have been having a rough time in Spain, where the challenge to the old, established order by Mallorca, Deportivo La Coruna and Celta Vigo has put Guus Hiddink on dodgy ground at the Bernabeu.

Retaining the trophy is probably the Dutch coach's only hope of survival, but while no club has a prouder tradition in this competition, winning it again last season after a 32-year gap seems to have taken the edge off Real's appetite, and they are probably dependent on a favourable draw for a semi-final place.

Inter finished a point ahead of Real in Group C, which reinforces the impression that last season's Uefa Cup winners are marginally the better bet.

They are no one-man band, as Roberto Baggio demonstrated with another goal against Sturm Graz in midweek, but Ronaldo does give them a trump card in any company.

Kaiserslautern, like so many of the others, are off the pace in their domestic league (it seems it is not just in England that Europe is a debilitating distraction), but the Bundesliga champions, as they were last season, are never to be taken lightly, and how Uwe Rosler, fresh from a headed hat-trick against HJK Helsinki, would love to return to Manchester and embarrass the old enemy.

Among so many thoroughbreds, it is tempting to call Kiev dark horses, but the fact is that the Ukrainians have been a class act for years now, albeit unsung. Look out, again, for Andrei Shevchenko, whose five goals in the Champions League last season included a memorable hat-trick in the 4-0 drubbing of Barcelona in the Nou Camp, and who scored the third in an impressive 3-1 win away to Lens on Wednesday. Sergei Rebrov is an effective scoring foil for club and country.

Olympiakos are the least likely of the eight to progress (how times have changed when one can discount the winners of a group in which Ajax finished last), which brings us back to square one, and the team Ferguson wanted out of the way.

Without a win in their first five games, Juventus were in danger of obliging, but Galatasaray's 1-0 defeat in Bilbao offered them a springboard, and they duly leapfrogged over the Turks, and Rosenborg, with a comfortable 2-0 home win against Norway's champions.

So the team United might have put out at the group stage last season survive again. The 7-2 some bookies are offering against the Italian side reaching the final for the fourth year in succession, and winning, are as appealing as that 3-1 United, but the Lovejoy Christmas bonus is on Kiev, at nines.


© Patrick Eustace 2000. Page maintained by Patrick Eustace, last updated Thursday, 27-Jan-2000 20:15:46

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