EVEN the heaviest hitter can expect only limited success if he has a glass jaw. But those who toss that warning at Manchester United, citing their tendency to score and surrender goals with equal facility against major opponents in the Champions League this season, should remember that they never stayed on the floor long enough to lose a contest in Group D. They were too easily spun off balance by counter punches, which explains their four draws with Barcelona and Bayern Munich, but they were rarely in danger of being knocked out. When they did take a stunning blow, they demonstrated a resilience that has often been missing from their response in recent years.
Their performances hitherto have done nothing to encourage glib assessments, positive or negative, of how far they can go in the competition. The form is difficult to read. After all the mathematical niceties of qualification for the quarter-finals had been resolved on Wednesday night - and it became clear that a defeat, let alone another stalemate with Bayern at Old Trafford, would have left United safe as one of the two best runners-up from the group stage - relief was the immediate reaction. Later, when the urge to look ahead asserted itself, there were predictable excesses of optimism and gloom.
Seeing Alex Ferguson's men as natural favourites to win the European Cup is illogical. But it is surely wrong to draw sweeping pessimistic conclusions from the fact that only the weakest of the eliminated clubs, SK Sturm Graz, Brondby and HJk Helsinki, yielded more goals in group matches. Is it not also significant that United easily outscored every other quarter-finalist? Their figures were: 20 for, 11 against. They struck 12 more goals than Olympiakos, 11 more than Inter Milan and Bayern Munich, 9 more than Dynamo Kiev, 8 more than Kaiserslautern and, of course, 13 more than Juventus. Strangely, the other second-place qualifier, Real Madrid, came closest to them, with an aggregate of 17.
Eleven of United's 20 were inflicted on Brondby but, lest that statistic invites a sneer, it is worth pointing out that over four matches the combined total scored against the Danes by Bayern and Barcelona was seven and the Germans managed to lose to them. If, because of criteria beyond the statistical, there is a strong case for recognising Dynamo Kiev as the most potent attacking force in the Champions League, it is obvious that United are legitimate rivals for that status.
Nobody should underestimate the importance of the transformation the catalytic arrival of Dwight Yorke has produced in Andy Cole. In that extravagantly entertaining 3-3 draw in Barcelona last month, the vulnerability of the Spanish team's defence did not obscure the evidence that their vibrant, penetrative partnership could alarm any opponents. On Wednesday, before and after Yorke's removal by a thigh injury, Cole performed with such relentless energy and purpose that Ferguson says it was the best display he has yet seen from the centre-forward. That developing alliance at the front is one of the foundations of the manager's belief that his team can now present a goal-threat greater than in any of his previous years at Old Trafford.
He acknowledges instantly that the asset will never be allowed to have its proper value if goals are given away at the other end as readily as they have been lately. But, as Jaap Stam shows increasing signs of adjusting to his new playing environment, Ferguson is confident that defensive frailty can be considerably reduced over the months between now and resumption of European Cup action in March. The question of whether Gary Neville would be better employed at right-back than in a central role alongside Stam clearly would be simplified if Ronny Johnsen, for whose pace and skills Ferguson has a high regard, could be relied upon to be regularly available for selection. Unfortunately, Johnsen seems constantly susceptible to injury. There have been mutterings around Old Trafford that if he were Navajo instead of Norwegian he might be called Broken Wing.
Plainly there must be further defensive concern associated with the ageing of the redoubtable Denis Irwin (who played extraordinarily well after suffering badly in a frightening clash of heads against Bayern but was found to be seriously groggy at half-time and was still sufficiently plagued by the consequences to be left out yesterday) and the worries engendered by the erratic form of the great goalkeeper Peter Schmeichel in his valedictory season with United.
Ferguson remains more sanguine than many of us about Schmeichel's ability to continue to make the remarkable contributions to the team's success that have been habitual for him in the Nineties. That he can summon up incredible saves was amply proved in midweek, especially when he lunged spectacularly to his right and appeared to draw a double-stretch from his body to palm away a blasted shot from Samuel Kuffour. Whether his focus on the movement of play in front of him and the timing of his interventions are as certain and sustained as formerly is much more questionable but his gift for the heroic may last long enough to serve the European cause.
For Irwin, the priority is maintaining freshness and he may be particularly favoured in the general application of the squad principle with which Ferguson will seek to minimise the effects of the crowded domestic programme to be faced before the quarter-finals. If United ran into FA Cup replays, they might have to cope with as many as 18 matches between qualification and their next European engagement. "If a replay is looming, you might see me playing with seven men up," Ferguson told me on Friday, with a laugh that was slightly strained.
Winter breaks ensure that Kiev will have no competitive fixtures before the quarter-finals (probably an extreme of idleness that will be more of a hindrance than a help) and the German clubs will have only four. United cannot collide at that stage with Bayern (a group adversary) or Real Madrid (the other second-place qualifier). Since Olympiakos, Juventus and Inter expect totals of domestic fixtures in the low teens, the British challengers may not suffer too drastically in relation to them. Drawing Kaiserslautern would, in terms of preparation, impose the worst disadvantage.
More fundamentally, some critics feel United are crucially handicapped by the lack of a player or players with the mature tactical sophistication to control the tempo and pattern of a game to suit the specific requirements of a given occasion. They suggest that, by exemplifying such capacities, Stefan Effenberg and Jens Jeremies gave Bayern a superior composure that should represent an edge on the long haul to the European Cup final. Jeremies and Effenberg were undeniably excellent but the standings before kick-off guaranteed that they would always be operating at a level of comfort denied to their opponents. Bayern did not look as composed on their own ground in September when United permitted them a goal of a start and then had them beaten until Schmeichel's wild blunder created a late equaliser. Bayern's two defeats of Barcelona indicated how formidable they can be, but where was their sophistication when they fell to Brondby?
Ferguson had instructed Keane and Scholes in midfield to ensure that Bayern, and Effenberg in particular, did not infiltrate behind them to attack the back four and he felt that objective was largely accomplished. "They did not open us up through the middle," he said. "Where they troubled us seriously was with crosses, especially at set-pieces. When they got corners or free kicks their delivery was superb and they were so big an strong that when the ball came across our box it was heart-in-the mouth time. We had practised intensively on Tuesday to cope with the threat but obviously a lot more work needs to be done."
His fellow managers in the quarter-finals know it will be. And it is unlikely that any of them will be craving Manchester United when the draw is made.
