GEORGE GRAHAM is known as a sergeant-major, but Colonel Bogey might be more appropriate come six o'clock tonight. If Tottenham poop the party at Old Trafford this afternoon, then Graham, like Alec Guinness in The Bridge On the River Kwai, will be left asking: "What have I done?"
If Spurs were to upset the odds and beat Manchester United, while Arsenal win at home to Aston Villa, the championship would stay at Highbury, retained by Tottenham's arch rivals and the club Graham has harboured a grudge against since they sacked him four years ago. As motivation goes, it is roughly on a par with a fortnight in Albania.
Small wonder, then, that Alex Ferguson was looking so relaxed last week. The managers' doyen knows that one more win, at the fortress where they are routine, and where Spurs have won only once in their past 20 visits, will secure the first leg of an unprecedented treble. If United won the League, he said, the FA Cup final on Saturday would take care of itself. "The whole club would be on such a high that I might even play myself." Wembley, one senses, is no better than third when it comes to Ferguson's priorities. It is not only on the calendar that winning the League comes first - do that and, even by United's exalted standards, you have had a successful season.
Today brings to an enthralling climax another Herculean tussle for the title between the two teams who have dominated English football in the 1990s. This one has been even more gripping than last season's joust between the same protagonists which, for all its will-they-won't-they intensity, was ultimately settled with two games to spare.
This time it has gone down to the wire and, with Sky Sports showing both of the decisive matches live on different channels, the Marty Feldman look could be in vogue tonight.
The two managers may not be very close, but their teams are. In terms of results, that is. That is not to say that they, or their creators, are very similar. Arsenal have started scoring goals "for fun", to lapse into the dressing-room argot, but their method is still founded on that rock-of-ages defence and the Trojan ball-winning efforts of Patrick Vieira and Emmanuel Petit in front of them. It was surely no coincidence that they conceded the crucial goal at Leeds on Tuesday after Nigel Winterburn had gone off, to be replaced by Nelson Vivas. The Famous Four were disturbed, and Jimmy-Floyd Hasselbaink dived in to score at the far post where the ever-reliable Winterburn would have been.
United are more vulnerable, particularly in central defence, where Jaap Stam has seen more partners than a City law firm. Now it is the Dutchman's turn to go on the injured list, the latest prognosis on his troublesome Achilles being that he will miss today's match and the Cup final, but that he should be fit for the big one in Barcelona in 10 days' time. This "weakness" at centre-back - these things are relative - is reflected in the goals-against column; United have conceded 36 to Arsenal's 17.
United's strength, of course, lies in the breadth and depth of their attack, where, in Dwight Yorke and Andy Cole, they possess two of the three leading scorers in the country. They also have Ole-Gunnar Solskjaer (17 goals in all competitions), who would walk into almost any other team in the League, with Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes also in double figures and David Beckham on eight. No mention yet of Teddy Sheringham, whose renaissance of late has been such that he, not Cole, will partner Yorke against his old club today, and may well play at Wembley. After Anelka (19) and Dennis Bergkamp (16), Arsenal struggle to match these riches, with Marc Overmars contributing a disappointing six in the League. Nwankwo Kanu undoubtedly has it in him to change all that but, for the moment at least, the Gunners are second best when it comes to shooting, with 58 League goals to United's 78.
Bare statistics, however, are the equivalent of painting by numbers. The real art comes from Beckham, with his broad-sweep passing, from Yorke, with his intelligent link play, from Bergkamp, whose subtlety is the aesthete's joy, and from Kanu, the newcomer with that startling flair for the unexpected. United have been lovely to watch and occasionally heroic, notably on that memorable night when overcoming Juventus in Turin.
A purple patch in the autumn hinted at what might follow, featuring the thrashing of Southampton (3-0), Wimbledon (5-1), Brondby (6-2), Everton (4-1) and poor Brondby again (5-0). But it is not these devastating bursts, rather their consistently high level of performance that has brought them to the verge of all-conquering greatness. Arsenal could pip them for the League, but were that to happen it would still be my contention that United are the better team because of their success in Europe, where Arsenal were found wanting at the group stage. Ferguson's long-held belief that United do not get the credit they deserve is supported by countrywide membership of the "Stand Up If You Hate Man U" brigade.
But even those of us with no time for such nonsense have some sympathy for Arsenal, who continue to compete at the highest level without fuelling the worrying escalation in transfer fees and wages. Stam and Yorke have been good value for United, even at a combined cost of £23m, but they were known quantities, and, given the wherewithal, any manager would have bought them. The bargain buys are to be found at Highbury, where Wenger bought Vieira, Petit and Anelka for a total of £7.5m. Anelka, scorer of only one League goal fewer than the £12.5m Yorke, cost £500,000.
United deserve, and have been given, great credit for unearthing and nurturing the coruscating talents of Beckham, Scholes, Nicky Butt, the Neville brothers and Giggs, but when they spend they spend big, and there was a certain incongruity about Ferguson's statement on Thursday that he was always on the look out for players "because you could bump into a Ronaldo playing for Crewe or Preston".
The last time United signed a player from Crewe or Preston, and spent money to the benefit of the underprivileged lower leagues, does not spring readily to mind, and if, or rather when, Ferguson buys during the summer, it is likely to be a Marcel Desailly rather than a Matthew Upson.
The manager of the year (who mentioned Ray Graydon?) has a been-there-done-that attitude to today's events. "I will only start to get excited if we win," he said. In reflective mood, he preferred to dwell on the way his managerial span at Old Trafford had developed, bringing him to the point of his present security, having recently signed a new contract. The pivotal moment, he said, had been the winning of United's first title for 26 years, in 1993.
Before that, he and his players had been over-anxious. "Sometimes the desire to win can be too strong, but once you've achieved something like that, it gives a manager control (of his destiny). You don't feel under pressure so much once you have won a title."
The memory of 1994-95, when United's failure to beat West Ham on the last day of the season let in Blackburn for the title, did not bother him. His team was better equipped this time: "I think we've shown that we're progressing all the time. I do think we should have won the League last year. We all think that. With the lead we had, we shouldn't have let it slip. But I have to hold my hands up, Arsenal were terrific. We were disappointed, but sometimes in life you have to be."
Of United's present situation, Ferguson said: "We're facing a sequence of events, and it is better that way, but it's going to get harder. If we win on Sunday, we will be able to go out and enjoy Wembley. If we lose on Sunday, I'll have to give my team selection for the European Cup final a great deal of thought because that game in Barcelona is very important to me."
He declined to elaborate, but there was tacit acceptance that United, unsurprisingly given their workload, have looked a little weary of late and could do with some fresh legs. It was a straw Wenger clutched at eagerly on Friday, when the Arsenal manager said: "They looked a little bit tired against Middlesbrough and Blackburn. If they had needed to take only a point from Tottenham, that would have been all too easy for them, but they have to win to be sure and, psychologically, that's not the same. There's more pressure on the one who has it already in his hands. They are in the driving seat, but they can still lose it. They are super-favourites. Everybody expects Manchester United to win, so I would say there is more pressure on them."
Despite all the jokes about Tottenham playing David Ginola in goal and laying down to deny Arsenal a chance of the title, Wenger and Ferguson both know that George Graham is a proud man and believe that his desire always to be a winner will ensure that his team give of their best. What worries Wenger most is the likelihood that Spurs will concede at least one goal. "For a while they put together some good defensive performances, but then they slipped back a bit - against us, for instance, and against West Ham."
While Arsenal are playing, he would prefer not to have progress reports from Old Trafford: "To demand that fans don't bring their radios would be to ask for the impossible, but we have to be really focused on our game, not distracted in any way by what is going on elsewhere. We want to win our last game, and finish the season well. We want to do that, even if it doesn't bring us the championship.
"At the moment, people are thinking, 'Okay, Arsenal will win their game and Tottenham will have to get a result for them', but it's not as simple as that. It won't be easy for us to win our game. Villa will come to Highbury just like every team that comes here. They'll try their hardest to make it difficult for us." He senses that Villa, too, will want to sign off on a high after the disappointing disintegration of their own title challenge.
Arsenal will be without Winterburn, who broke his nose against Leeds. Vivas's culpability when Hasselbaink scored led Wenger to consider moving Martin Keown to left-back and bringing in Upson alongside Tony Adams, but the young centre-half is not properly fit, so the Argentinian will keep his place.
